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Management Consultants. A group of senior-level management
consultants, offering strategic planning and marketing services
to a wide range of public and private sector clients.
Trends
2000 - How to Prepare for and Profit From the Changes of
the 21st Century
Gerald Celente
Warner Books, New York, 1997
Gerald Celente, of the Trends Research Institute, maintains
that the new millennium will usher in a new era for humanity
- one of much upheaval as well as many opportunities for
those in the right place at the right time, or with the
foresight to get in on the ground floor of something new.
Predicting neither Armageddon nor the Age of Aquarius, he
holds that while the changes ahead will be wrenching, there
is a great new era of prosperity looming ahead.
"This
book is intended to guide you through the times to come:
out of the twentieth century and into the first decades
of the new millennium. Though we are certain the United
States, along with the rest of the world, will be going
through increasingly troubled times in the immediate future,
this is emphatically not a doom-and-gloom book. There is
light at the end of the tunnel. Powerful positive countertrends
are already surfacing and visible, or more often, still
hidden but bubbling beneath the surface. There is a very
real global Renaissance in store. It is the unrecognized
clash between the disruptive forces of the dying Industrial
Age and the subtler constructive forces of the renaissance
to come that we call Millennium Fever." (p.7)
To see
the truth, he holds, we must learn to see through the 'junk
news' (such as the shenanigans of O. J. Simpson or the latest
antics of President Clinton) that obscures the reality of
what goes on in the world, and serves to divert the attention
of 70% of the population. (The other 30% - what he terms
the 'Middle Muddle', is a group that is slightly more intelligent
than the others and less likely to be diverted by junk news.
However, this group is largely kept in a state of confusion
by conflicting opinions on 'expert panels', 'think tanks'
and the like.) The end result of all of this according to
Celente, is that very few people can actually cut through
the confusion and truly understand what is going on around
them.
Fortunately
for the reader, Celente and his brains trust back at the
Trends Research Institute are among those few. Among their
predictions are that the world will face some sort of nuclear
disaster, (whether from terrorists possessing the bomb,
or faulty reactors leaking or blowing up) so that in the
longer term, humanity will abandon this form of technology
(as it will the use of fossil fuels, for other reasons).
Also, they see an increase in concern for a clean healthy
lifestyle, and a return to the land (in many cases through
some form of communal living). Family values will become
important again. Oh, yes, and the United States will continue
to dominate the world in all things that truly matter, such
as hardware and software development.
Whether
or not their mega-predictions come to pass, they do foresee
a number of interesting specific opportunities for new businesses
and enterprises that are worthy of consideration, as the
following quotes from teh book show:
€
The next dramatic shift in the momentum of the digital revolution
will take place with the perfection of the videophone. (p.20)
€
Risk insurance will mean putting at least 10% of your savings
into gold, with a diversified portfolio of gold stocks,
bullion and coins. (p.49)
€
The $24 billion spent by Americans on weight control in
1995 will become $30 billion by the year 200, and will accelerate
beyond that. Well positioned weight control businesses will
grow fat as their clients grow lean. (p.92)
€
Longevity centers represent the cutting edge of the new
health trend. Nobody has quite seen anything like them before.
(p. 100)
€
Any water supply-related business represents a sound investment
for the foreseeable future: This includes water sources,
purification systems and supplies, distribution and marketing.
(p.103)
€
On-line health service providers will continue to proliferate
as public disenchantment with standard health delivery spurs
entrepreneurs to find ways to make health information easily
and cheaply accessible. HMOs providing coverage for alternative
therapies will also prove attractive to both member patients
and investors. (p.119)
€
The health/fitness/ nutrition trend, in its infancy and
early childhood in the eighties and nineties, will go into
an accelerated growth stage at the turn of the century.
Driven by an aging baby-boom population, health will become
a priority concern. (p.121)
€
Ardent life extension seekers will travel the globe searching
for anti-aging therapies and lifestyles: drugs, herbs, minerals,
elixirs, magic spells, and magic potions to stave off the
consequences of old age. (p.123)
€
The new focus on health will become a powerful trend, creating
both confusion and job opportunities: in response to an
obvious and growing trend, a number of new professions will
be created - among them, vitamin counselor. (p.125)
€
The trend for 'clean food' is in the early stages of its
life cycle. It will accelerate rapidly and will continue
to grow beyond the foreseeable future. Huge demand for clean
food will produce a ripple effect along the food chain that
will stretch from producer to consumer. (p.131)
€
For businesses looking to launch new products and services,
the 'fast and easy' trend will be the main criterion for
success. (p.133)
€
With demand so high and supply so short, clean land to grow
clean food will be at a premium. Micro farm real estate
will be among the most coveted commercial properties of
the twenty-first century - especially if it has an ample
supply of clean water on it. (p.136)
€
The American megamarketing mentality will be applied to
the booming health trend. Entrepreneurs will take the best
of the nineteenth-century general store, the best of the
twentieth century supermarket, and put them together to
produce something entirely new: the Healthmart. (p.139)
€
Fast-food health-food restaurants, virtually nonexistent
in the nineties, will be the hottest segment in an otherwise-saturated
fast food industry. (p.142)
€
Exurban commercial and residential real estate will be on
an uptrend for at least twenty-five years. Buying into selected
depressed small-town, exurban and country markets in the
nineties will prove a sound investment strategy in the coming
decades. (p.144)
€
By January 1, 2000, a resurgence of environmentally clean
new industries based in the United States will be producing
high-end wages for skilled workers. New products will be
produced and new services developed to meet growing demand
in on-trend fields: health, technology, communications,
the environment, transportation, energy, housing, agriculture
- and the booming home business business. (p.160)
€
Voluntary simplicity, an unrealizable counterculture ideal
in the seventies, will become a reality and significant
trend in the new millennium. Entrepreneurs able to provide
goods or services that enhance the quality of life while
at the same time saving money, will make money. (p.172)
€
Financial planning experts will find a growing business
helping boomers prepare for the future. Up-and-coming generations
will learn to make use of financial planning services earlier
rather than later in life. (p.174)
€
Retiring boomers will generate a real estate and building
boom south of the [US] border, seeking locales where a high
quality of life can be lived on diminished means. Favored
sites will be Cuba (shortly to become accessible) the Dominican
Republic, Costa Rica, and other politically stable Caribbean
and Central American countries. Low-end boomers will also
be moving south for the very same reasons, but financial
constraints will drive them to the poorer southern states
within the US. Boomers looking toward retirement will do
well to stake out claims in desirable areas before the landrush
hits. Architects and builders serving this trend will prosper.
(p.175)
€
Home garden-oriented businesses will experience tremendous
growth in every sector - including vegetable, ornamental,
and aquatic. This trend will be a bountiful producer of
jobs, products and services. This trend is in the adolescent
stage of its life cycle. (p.178)
€
Bringing health to the home will provoke new businesses,
big and small, and a spectrum of new jobs for enterprising
and inventive individuals. The trend is in the early stages
of growth in its life cycle. (p.183)
€
Home improvement and remodeling from the architect/designer
level to do-it-yourself will be a strong growth sector.
(p.186)
€
The need and desire for healthy homes and environmentally
sound architecture will generate new products and new specialties
within traditional construction industries, trades and professions.
(p.190)
€
Enterprising businesses and individuals will find ways to
make livings from the home delivery trend. Many of the foot
soldiers in the door-to-door corps will be recruited from
the ranks of the middle managers and other downsizees unable
to find work in their own fields or at their former income
levels. (p.192)
€
Microbusinesses will amount to an entrepreneurial explosion
over the next three decades. In the mid-nineties, the trend
was only in its early growth stage, with successful microbusinesses
taking on average 1 to 3 percent of total industry market
share. (p.195)
€
Prosperous malls will increasingly function as social venues.
Evacuated department stores and national retail chains will
be converted into multipurpose, multimedia entertainment/fitness/sports/recreation
units, catering primarily to a market ranging from pre-teenagers
to young adults. (p.201)
€
Factory-direct or distributor-direct shopping will revolutionize
American buying habits. Easy-to-access easy-to-use computer
services, available to every American home, will make it
possible to buy a wide array of mass-produced consumer products
more cheaply and easily. (p.202)
€
By January 1, 2000, the nationwide return to nature and
the great outdoors, a trend that began in the seventies
but was slow to mature, will take hold and catch fire. Businesses
and services participating in this trend can expect strong
growth throughout the twenty-first century. (p.207)
€
Ecotourism will be the fastest-growing segment within the
travel industry. Baby-boomers, Generation Xers and their
children will fuel this trend. (p.211)
€
The need to care for elders will generate a lively business
in building additions and freestanding cottages - including
modular structures and mobile homes. Properties with expansion
capabilities will have premium market value. The trend's
buzzwords will be granny flats, ECHO housing (Elder Cottage
Housing Opportunities), maintenance-free, one-level, and
easy access. (p.227)
€
The renewed demand for boarding-houses and other forms of
shared housing will make multi-family dwellings excellent
investment opportunities, particularly in gentrified urban
areas, stable suburbs and new exurban population centers.
(p.228)
€
Once looked upon as camps for aging hippies, intentional
communities (i.e. living experiences that combine personal
growth with communal living) and Renaissance learning centers
will appeal to a growing segment of aging baby boomers and
maturing Generation Xers. The trend will grow steadily for
at least the next fifteen years as more and more people
seek stability and inner peace. (p.235)
€
New, lucrative mass-marketing possibilities will present
themselves as Generation X acquires its own distinct personality.
Marketers whose goods and services are non generation-specific
will do well to stress commonalities rather than differences
between boomers and Xers. (p.237)
€
Interactive, on-line learning will revolutionize education.
Demand for 'distance learning' software, hardware and services
will generate a mighty new component within the telecommunications
and publishing industries. Especially in its early stages
of development, distance learning will provide rich opportunities
for small entrepreneurs, scholars, artists, educators and
inventors, as well as for established communications giants.
(p.249)
€
The growth of the home education and 'Interactive University'
trends will accelerate rapidly once tele-videophony or other
comparable multimedia-interface technologies become available
and affordable. (p.253)
€
Austerity budgets coinciding with economic fallback and
burgeoning educational technologies will disrupt all levels
of the teaching profession. But despite layoffs and cutbacks,
on-trend teachers and educators will find new professional
opportunities opening up on the interactive home schooling
network. (p.255)
€
Environmental desecration that crosses national boundaries
will increasingly serve as a justification for war. Affected
countries will declare such ecological violations enemy
invasions. Equating environmental violations to international
aggression will become a major foreign policy issue in the
twenty-first century. Violators will be tried as the war
criminals of the new millennium. Governments will use other
nation's environmental violations as both grounds for imposing
tariffs and trade embargoes. (p.268)
€
The successful businesses of the Global Age will practice
a compassionate capitalism. Money will be made by individuals
and firms capable of producing and marketing products and
services that satisfy a world with changed values. Products
that address real physical, emotional and artistic (quality
of life) needs and do not destroy the earth in the process
will be in demand. (p.271)
€
Like the Cold War before it, the war on crime will be lavishly
funded by taxpayers. Businesses, manufacturers, entrepreneurs,
anybody providing services relevant to the surveillance,
arrest and incarceration of criminals will find roles to
play in a major growth industry. The trend began in the
mid-1980s and will see steady growth through 2010. (p.291)
€
Security and safety-oriented businesses and services will
boom in the next two decades. The $70 billion hypersafety
industry (1995) will continue to grow at 9 per cent per
year through the turn of the century. (p. 292)
€
The United States will be the epicenter of the global Renaissance.
Its cultural life will have the richness and diversity of
the Italian Renaissance, but in an appropriately high-tech
format. (p.298)
€
The United States will continue to reign as world leader
in hardware and software development beyond the foreseeable
future. This dominance will oblige the rest of the world
to communicate in cyber-English. (p. 299)
€
By 2000, a trend towards manufacturing products that satisfy
and address real physical, emotional, and artistic (quality
of life) needs will enter into the growth stage of its'
life cycle. An enlightened consumer society driven by back-to-basics
values will replace the society manipulated by Madison Avenue¹s
'Hidden Persuaders'. (p.301)
€
Smartwear will bridge the gap between casual and formal.
It will be appearance-enhancing but personalized and comfortable
(what's smart for me). Computerization plus declining wage
scales will bring custom tailoring back into an affordable
price range. The creative will design their own smartwear;
millions of others will consult or collaborate with a new
corps of personal dressmakers and tailors. (p.302)
€
Corporations that become sincere and adventurous patrons
of the arts will not only play a role in enriching society's
emotional and spiritual life, but will also see their support
and sincerity favorably reflected in their balance sheets.
A grateful public will be quick to show its appreciation
with its own form of support. (p.304)
€
The energy revolution (which is foreseen to be an amalgam
of cold fusion, solar energy, geothermal energy and wind
energy) will be the single-biggest investment opportunity
of the twenty-first century. Its ramifications will extend
to practically every aspect of human and planetary life.
To profit from the trend, potential investors should start
familiarizing themselves with the field thoroughly and immediately,
and keep abreast of developments before they become official.
(p. 306)
€
The chain of ancillary industries, products and services
that depend on or sustain the fossil fuel and nuclear energy
industries will go down with them - mining, drilling, refining,
processing, delivering, storage, equipment. Public utilities
will cease to exist. On-trend investors with money in these
industries should monitor events closely to safeguard their
holdings. Threatened industries should reinvent their mission
statements. (p.308)
As is
evident from the foregoing, the book contains many nuggets
of information, particularly relating to new opportunity
areas. However, at the very end of the book, Celente reminds
us that humanity has some trials to go through before this
new Renaissance is upon us:
"On
January 1, 2000, it was not yet apparent to everyone that
light was being woven into the dark and violent backdrop
of destructive and devolutionary trends. Yet it would not
be so very long before the golden threads of Renaissance
thought, emotion and values took command of the new millennium
tapestry.
Ideas
had changed. People changed. Everything changed. The Global
Age was born." (p.312)
