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The
End of Work - The Decline of the Global Labor Force and
the Dawn of the Post-Market Era
by Jeremy Rifkin
Tarcher/Putnam, New York, 1995
Rifkin
maintains that we are now in the throes of a 'third industrial
revolution', which has been going on since the end of World
War II. The 'first industrial revolution' occurred in the
late 18th and early 19th centuries, when steam power first
became developed and used extensively, and replaced human
labor in mines and factories. Next, the 'second industrial
revolution', in the late 19th and first half of the 20th
centuries, powered by fossil fuels of coal and oil, replaced
human labor at an accelerated pace in the workplace. In
both the first and second industrial revolutions, though,
the economic niches and opportunities opened up by the new
forms of power offset the loss of jobs. However, Rifkin
does not see this happening with the 'third industrial revolution'
(which he also calls the 'Information Age'):
"In
the past, when new technologies have replaced workers in
a given sector, new sectors have always emerged to absorb
the displaced laborers. Today all three of the traditional
sectors of the economy - agriculture, manufacturing and
service - are experiencing technological displacement, forcing
millions onto the unemployment rolls. The only new sector
emerging is the knowledge sector, made up of a small elite
of entrepreneurs, scientists, technicians, computer programmers,
professional educators and consultants. While this sector
is growing, it is not expected to absorb more than a fraction
of the hundreds of millions who will be eliminated in the
next several decades in the wake of revolutionary advances
in the information and communication sciences." (p.
xvii)
Toward
the end of the book he re-states this thesis:
"The
apostles and evangelists of the Information Age entertain
few if any doubts about the ultimate success of the experiment
at hand. They are convinced that the Third Industrial Revolution
will succeed in opening up more job opportunities than it
forecloses and that dramatic increases in productivity will
be matched by elevated levels of consumer demand and the
opening up of new global markets to absorb the flood of
new goods and services that will become available. Their
faith, and for that matter their entire world view, hinges
on the correctness of those two propositions.
The
critics, on the other hand, as well as a growing number
of people already left at the wayside of the Third Industrial
revolution, are beginning to question whether the new jobs
are going to come from. In a world where sophisticated information
and communications technologies will be able to replace
more and more of the global workforce, it is unlikely that
more than a fortunate few will be retrained for the relatively
scarce high-tech scientific, professional and managerial
jobs made available in the emerging knowledge sector....
Then
there is the oft-heard argument that new technologies, products
and services not yet even imaginable will come along, providing
new business opportunities and jobs for millions. Critics,
however, point out that any new product lines introduced
in the future will probably require far fewer workers to
assemble, produce and deliver and thus not add significant
numbers to the employment rolls Even if a product with a
universal market potential were to emerge today - one similar
to radio or television - its production would likely be
highly automated and require few on-line workers."
(p. 288)
A major
problem with this situation according to Rifkin is that
under the present system, this lack of employment means
in turn that many households will lack the purchasing power
to participate fully in society, to buy the goods and services
produced by the economy. (In a sense, he notes, this is
a reversal of Henry Ford's philosophy of paying his workers
a sufficient wage so that they could afford the very cars
that they were producing.)
Much
of the book is a detailed recitation of fects and figures
from around the world, showing how employment in traditionally
key sectors - agriculture, manufacturing, and the service
sector - is dwlndling, and is unlikely to be replaced by
new jobs. Ultimately, Rifkin sees no way to stop or reverse
the trends of automation and technological development that
are creating 'the end of work'. He does, though, present
some policy options for governments to consider to ease
the transition and to deal with a future situation where
there is not enough meaningful work for all. These include:
a shorter work week (he suggests a 30-hour week)
a guaranteed
annual income (coupled with a requirement for individuals
to work for welfare)
a revised
tax system that would allow deductions for time spent in
volunteer, charitable and not-for-profit organizations (what
Rifkin terms 'shadow wages')
This latter option he sees as actually a very attractive
one, and suggests that this 'third sector' could emerge
as a viable employment alternative for individuals (in addition
to the private sector ('the first sector') and government
('the second sector'). This would provide a meaningful occupation
to millions, and would (he says) re-connect them with the
American tradition of volunteerism and philanthropy (although
one must question whether it is true volunteerism in this
case, if they are receiving financial compensation in any
form).
He ends
by underscoring the point that we are at a crossroads, and
that our safe transition to another era will depend on our
foresight and determination:
"We
are entering a new age of global markets and automated production.
The road to a near-workerless economy is within sight. Whether
that road leads to a safe haven or a terrible abyss will
depend on how well civilization prepares for the post-market
era that will follow on the heels of the Third Industrial
Revolution. The end of work could spell a death sentence
for civilization as we have come to know it. The end of
work could also signal the beginning of a great social transformation,
a rebirth of the human spirit. The future lies in our hands."
(pp. 292, 293).
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