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Shakedown
- How the New Economy is Changing Our Lives
by Angus Reid
Doubleday Canada Limited, Toronto, 1996
"The
1990s have witnessed a great stirring of the Canadian soul.
Issues of national unity, anxiety over jobs, the emerging
of the global economy, new technologies and fundamentally
different demographic forces are rapidly changing our social
space. Many Canadians feel marooned on what seems an alien
landscape, confronted by seemingly contradictory paths to
the future. I wrote this book because I'm convinced that
the concerns and anxieties about the future expressed in
recent polls need to be addressed. Canadians sense that
something is happening - that powerful changes are coursing
through their lives. And they're right." (p. xii)
The
word that Reid uses to describe the collective effect of
these forces is 'shakedown'. As the term implies, this is
a period of major restructuring of the economy and of society
overall. (The new (1996) ITP Nelson Canadian Dictionary
defines 'shakedown' as "..a period of appraisal followed
by adjustments to improve efficiency or functioning".)
Reid is singularly qualified to chart these trends: as President
of the Angus Reid Group, he has been polling Canadians on
various matters of economic, social and political interest
for nearly 20 years.
His
vision of the future is a very bleak one. He characterizes
the change that we are living through now as having gone
from a 'spend and share' era, which lasted 25 years from
1965 to 1990, to a 'sink or swim' era, which started in
1991. In the 'spend and share' era there was a general air
of optimism: women were working, the economy was strong,
jobs were plentiful, and there was confidence in the role
of government as a generator of economic benefits. The labour
force, government and the services sector were all growing
and Canadians were benefiting from the 'trickle down' of
household, corporate and government spending. In those times
of growth, Canadians didn't mind so much sharing part of
their wealth with others less fortunate - hence the development
of our much-vaunted 'safely net'. The prevailing philosophy
during the 'spend and share' era was, according to Reid,
that Canadians had "...found a formula for what had
never existed before: a society that allowed its citizens
to be both selfish and generous at the same time."
(p.66)
Now,
however, we have entered a harsher time when our economic
destiny is less secure than it seemed during the halcyon
days of 'spend and share'. Reid maintains that this has
shattered ten myths that Canadians fondly held during the
'good times':
Myth
#1: Big is safe - This is patently no longer true when one
looks at the downsizing that has occurred at large entities
such as Ontario Hydro, the banks, the CBC, etc. etc.
Myth
#2: Growth is good for everyone - In these times of record
corporate profits (the banks, for example) yet very high
unemployment rates and unprecedented need for food banks,
the old idea that economic growth was good for all has little
credence.
Myth
#3: Science and technology will save us - Reid maintains
that we are increasingly questioning the ability of science
and technology to provide the answers that we will need
in future, and points to the flurry of questions raised
about the human genome project and the inability of science
to develop a cure for aids as examples.
Myth
#4: A good education means a good job - "There is no
longer any surefire formula for translating education and
training into the kinds of rewarding jobs baby boomers once
had for the asking." (p.26)
Myth
#5: Loyalty is all - see Myth no. 1
Myth
#6: Location, location, location - Telecommunications technology
has largely broken the barriers of location, and made possible
new methods of doing business such as telecommuting. (Just
how Reid sees this factor as creating a more challenging
and difficult time for Canadians in the future is not clear.)
Myth
#7: Time is linear - One result of the globalization of
business is that there is no longer a linear flow of 'work
time' (i.e. day) and 'non-work time' (i.e. night). Now we
are on call 24 hours a day, if we want to keep up with the
world.
Myth
#8: What you see is what you get - With digital technologies
that are able to alter any photograph or image to make it
look real, we increasingly learn to distrust our senses,
and question everything we see.
Myth
#9: Canadian culture is a sacred trust - It is obvious when
drastic cuts are made to the budgets of the CBC and other
Canadian institutions, and when the Mountie image can be
sold to the Disney Corporation, that Canadian culture is
no longer seen to be worthy of protection and development.
Myth
#10: The public interest still counts - The political mania
towards increasing privatization of things once held to
be the responsibility of government because they were in
the public interest, such as hospitals, utilities, transportation,
etc., shows that the public interest is clearly secondary
to financial considerations.
In the
'sink or swim' era, Reid contends, two major forces impact
on the workforce in Canada. One of these is technology -
jobs will be replaced by microchips. The other is globalization,
as companies outsource production to a much cheaper labour
force in the third world (and decisions that impact on the
future of companies operating in Canada are increasingly
made in Washington and elsewhere). This shakedown in the
jobs market will have ripple effects - less consumer spending,
lower demand for services, fewer job opportunities for young
people, and a general malaise regarding the prospects for
the future.
Fundamentally
this situation is confusing to Canadians because many sectors
of the economy are growing at the same time as they are
cutting back on their workforces. In addition to reduced
labour costs through downsizing, this is a result of productivity
gains through technology, and the pursuit of global markets.
The resulting paradox of strong economic growth (read profits)
in some industries without a commensurate increase in the
number of jobs available in those same industries has frustrated
and maddened Canadians. Growth in the economy used to mean
growth in jobs, but now the era of the 'jobless recovery'
is upon us. Thus we read of record-high bank profits and
stratospheric salaries paid to CEOs, while the ranks of
the unemployed and homeless swell and the lineups at the
food banks get longer. Reid hints darkly that these may,
finally, be Marx's Ô'internal contradictions of capitalism'
coming to light.
The
result of all this for Canadian households is that, not
surprisingly, they are cutting back on spending, and becoming
increasingly value-conscious in their purchases. However,
Reid also sees a positive side to this in terms of a return
to more spiritual and community-oriented values, as Canadians
realize that they simply cannot be as materialistic as they
had been in the past.
Turning
toward public institutions, though, Reid does not see this
greater sense of community displayed. Instead he notes the
swing to the right in many recently-elected provincial governments,
and the emphasis on downsizing, privatization, decentralization
and deregulation that has accompanied them into power. In
many respects, he notes, governments have abandoned their
traditional roles of protecting and supporting sectors of
society and the economy, and points to welfare cutbacks,
health care reforms, and the withdrawal of support for Canadian
culture as examples. These trends threaten the very essence
of Canada's uniqueness: "I therefore think that the
greatest risk inherent in the sink or swim era is that its
central proposition - unrestrained self-interest - will
drown some of the most important attributes of Canadian
society." (p. 277)
This
situation bodes particularly badly for the prospect of Quebec
remaining in Canada. A Canada that is no different from
the U.S., Reid holds, is meaningless to Quebec, and there
will be no compelling reason for Quebeckers to remain part
of it. He sees a very real danger of Quebec leaving the
Canadian fold.
Is there
any hope? While he may have diagnosed the problem well,
Reid doesn't offer much by way of solutions. He envisages
an emphasis on entrepreneurship and small home-based businesses
that will create some jobs that may offset to a small extent
the job losses that we have suffered. He talks about the
building of a society founded on trust, civility and fairness.
He says we must recognize the legitimate role of governments
in creating benefits for us all, and allow and enable them
to do that. But he offers no specific program or action
plan to achieve this.
"I
began this book by stating the obvious: there are powerful
forces arrayed against us. Let me conclude by observing
that we can swim against them if we see the opportunity,
but as so often when facing powerful forces, opportunities
for true confrontation will be scarce. In most case, we
are likely to have more luck if we can ride those current
forces the way a canoeist navigates a stream, accepting
the inevitability of their strength without letting them
gain complete ascendancy. And whatever we do, we must do
everything in our power to resist becoming victims.
To achieve
this, Canadians are going to have to look inside themselves
for entrepreneurial spirit, and outside themselves for the
communal spirit that has sustained this country through
its most difficult times. We can get through this if we
are determined to grow, rather than shrink, as a people.
We must change. But, no matter how dark the clouds, we cannot
abandon who we are." (p. 312)
Such
platitudes and home-spun advice, though do not a program
for action make. Reid's dark vision of the future cannot
help but leave one with a sense that not much can be done
when we're up against the monstrous and overwhelming forces
of technological change and globalization. It is a very
bleak and depressing vision, and unfortunately, it may well
be right.
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